It was eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
It remains a rather hard proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, while the positive results have piled up.
According to Opta, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more versus United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, will not continue to thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
